U.S. natural gas prices dip on weak demand and high storage levels
- Lower demand forecasts and high storage levels weigh on prices
- Permian pipeline constraints keep Waha Hub prices negative for record 67 days
- LSEG data shows U.S. output, LNG exports, and demand all trending lower
U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand than previously expected, ample amounts of fuel in storage and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants during the usual spring maintenance season.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.867 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Monday, the contract rose to its highest since March 27.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 67 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.6 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Output has declined in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, like EQT, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise in the future.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 4.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.9 bcfd. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year.
But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand from near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 27.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.4 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
|
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Week ended May 1 Actual |
Year ago May 8 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 8 |
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+79 |
+63 |
+109 |
+84 |
|
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,284 |
2,205 |
2,239 |
2,150 |
|
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+6.7% |
|||
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NGc1> |
2.91 |
2.91 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> |
16.14 |
15.95 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
|
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> |
16.95 |
16.87 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
|
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
42 |
47 |
60 |
61 |
61 |
|
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
104 |
101 |
93 |
84 |
79 |
|
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
146 |
148 |
153 |
145 |
140 |
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|||||
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.5 |
109.3 |
110.3 |
105.6 |
100.1 |
|
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
N/A |
7.3 |
|
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
116.1 |
117.0 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.8 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
N/A |
6.5 |
|
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.0 |
16.7 |
17.3 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
|
U.S. Commercial |
6.5 |
5.8 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
|
U.S. Residential |
7.3 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
|
U.S. Power Plant |
29.1 |
30.4 |
32.5 |
32.4 |
30.6 |
|
U.S. Industrial |
22.6 |
22.1 |
21.7 |
22.2 |
22.0 |
|
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.9 |
71.8 |
71.5 |
71.7 |
73.0 |
|
Total U.S. Demand |
99.4 |
98.3 |
98.4 |
N/A |
94.8 |
|
N/A = Not Available |
|||||
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
|
Apr-Sep |
90 |
90 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
|
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
|
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|||||
|
Week ended May 15 |
Week ended May 8 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
|
|
Wind |
12 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
Solar |
10 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Natural Gas |
36 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
|
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
|
Nuclear |
21 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> |
2.82 |
2.75 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
|
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> |
2.12 |
1.86 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
|
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> |
1.70 |
1.49 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
|
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> |
1.99 |
1.88 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
|
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> |
2.38 |
2.45 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
|
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> |
2.50 |
2.00 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
|
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> |
2.37 |
2.23 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
|
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> |
-3.87 |
-3.92 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
|
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> |
1.23 |
1.01 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> |
44.19 |
52.00 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
|
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> |
43.70 |
48.95 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
|
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) <W-MIDCP-IDX> |
37.06 |
32.57 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
|
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> |
44.37 |
44.49 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
|
South Path-15 (SP-15) <W-SP15-IDX> |
19.03 |
23.69 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci )
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