U.S. natgas futures rise as hotter weather boosts demand, some spot prices negative
- Hotter weather and output decline expected to boost mid-June gas demand
- Waha Hub prices rise but remain negative for record 86 days amid higher demand
- Pacific Northwest power prices drop due to abundant hydropower and low demand
U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday with forecasts for hotter weather than previously expected over the next two weeks boosting demand in mid-June, and a slow decline in output in recent days.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 1.2%, to $3.186 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 27.
In the cash market, gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas rose to their highest since early February, though still in negative territory for a record 86 days in a row, as demand for the fuel rises with summer's approach and as pipeline companies start to wrap up spring maintenance.
In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, ample supplies of cheap hydropower and low demand cut next-day power prices at the Mid-Columbia hub on the Washington-Oregon border to minus 40 cents per megawatt-hour, the lowest since the contract hit a record low of -77 cents in March 2017.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 Bft3d so far in June, down from 109.7 Bft3d in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 Bft3d in December 2025. The average so far for June was lower than seen on Monday.
Analysts said mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the surplus of gas in inventory to around 5% above normal during the week ended June 5, down from about 6% above normal in the previous week.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 24, which should boost the amount of gas that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 102.6 Bft3d this week to 103.6 Bft3d next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from 17.1 Bft3d in May to 16.3 Bft3d so far in June due to ongoing spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG’s plant in Texas.
Those flows compare with a monthly LNG feedgas record high of 18.8 Bft3d in April.
|
Week ended Jun 5 Actual |
Week ended May 29 Actual |
Year ago Jun 5 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 5 |
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+94 |
+95 |
+110 |
+95 |
|
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,672 |
2,578 |
2,691 |
2,535 |
|
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.4% |
+5.7% |
|||
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NGc1> |
3.17 |
3.15 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> |
16.75 |
16.99 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
|
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> |
18.90 |
18.77 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
|
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
8 |
8 |
20 |
20 |
15 |
|
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
193 |
187 |
138 |
138 |
148 |
|
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
201 |
195 |
158 |
158 |
163 |
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|||||
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.6 |
109.1 |
109.3 |
106.1 |
100.6 |
|
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
N/A |
7.7 |
|
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Total U.S. Supply |
116.3 |
115.8 |
115.7 |
N/A |
108.3 |
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
|
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.6 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
|
U.S. Commercial |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
|
U.S. Residential |
4.2 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
|
U.S. Power Plant |
34.5 |
39.4 |
39.8 |
37.7 |
39.1 |
|
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
|
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.6 |
76.8 |
77.0 |
75.6 |
78.5 |
|
Total U.S. Demand |
98.3 |
102.6 |
103.6 |
N/A |
99.5 |
|
N/A = Not Available |
|||||
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
|
Apr-Sep |
88 |
88 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
|
Jan-Jul |
92 |
91 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
|
Oct-Sep |
97 |
96 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|||||
|
Week ended Jun 12 |
Week ended June 5 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
|
|
Wind |
13 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
Solar |
10 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Natural Gas |
39 |
38 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
|
Coal |
15 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
|
Nuclear |
16 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> |
3.10 |
3.05 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
|
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> |
2.24 |
2.38 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
|
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> |
1.65 |
1.75 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
|
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> |
2.14 |
2.18 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
|
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> |
2.69 |
2.75 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
|
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> |
2.48 |
2.40 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
|
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> |
2.68 |
2.65 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
|
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> |
-0.22 |
-0.87 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
|
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> |
1.24 |
1.31 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> |
53.48 |
47.00 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
|
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> |
65.57 |
57.72 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
|
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) <W-MIDCP-IDX> |
-0.40 |
4.61 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
|
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> |
20.98 |
18.43 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
|
South Path-15 (SP-15) <W-SP15-IDX> |
3.75 |
2.58 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |
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