U.S. natgas hits 17-month low on mild weather, ample stockpiles
- Mild weather and low demand boost gas storage above 5-yr average
- Waha Hub prices remain negative for record 45 days due to Permian pipeline constraints
- S. gas output rises in April but daily production dips on Louisiana, Wyoming reductions
U.S. natural gas futures eased to a fresh 17-month low on Friday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas to stockpiles than usual for at least a few more weeks.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery <NGc1> on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.3 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.657 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 29, 2024.
That kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row, for the first time since December 2025.
For the week, the contract was on track to decline about 5% after losing about 10% last week.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 45 straight days as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 54 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.41 per MMBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021–2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.0 Bft3d so far in April, up from 110.4 Bft3d in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 Bft3d in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.2 Bft3d over the past four days to a preliminary two-week low of 108.9 Bft3d on Friday due mostly to reductions in Louisiana and Wyoming. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 5.3% above normal levels during the week ended April 10, up from 4.8% above normal during the week ended April 3.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 25, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 108.2 Bft3d this week to 99.4 Bft3d next week before rising to 101.6 Bft3d. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 Bft3d so far in April, up from 18.6 Bft3d in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 Bft3d in February.
|
Week ended April 10 Forecast |
Week ended April 3 Actual |
Year ago April 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) April 10 |
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+50 |
+50 |
+22 |
+38 |
|
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
1,961 |
1,911 |
1,844 |
1,862 |
|
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.3% |
+4.8% |
|||
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NGc1> |
2.67 |
2.67 |
3.43 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1> |
15.36 |
15.78 |
11.48 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
|
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1> |
19.50 |
19.49 |
12.23 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
|
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
105 |
112 |
176 |
173 |
160 |
|
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
57 |
55 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
|
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
162 |
167 |
209 |
205 |
190 |
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|||||
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.9 |
111.1 |
111.1 |
105.9 |
99.9 |
|
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.9 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
N/A |
7.5 |
|
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Total U.S. Supply |
117.9 |
118.1 |
117.2 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
3.4 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
N/A |
2.5 |
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
N/A |
6.1 |
|
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.9 |
18.6 |
18.7 |
16.5 |
13.1 |
|
U.S. Commercial |
8.9 |
8.9 |
6.6 |
10.5 |
8.6 |
|
U.S. Residential |
11.9 |
12.0 |
8.1 |
15.2 |
11.4 |
|
U.S. Power Plant |
29.0 |
28.9 |
27.5 |
30.1 |
27.2 |
|
U.S. Industrial |
23.2 |
23.4 |
22.4 |
24.0 |
23.3 |
|
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Total U.S. Consumption |
80.8 |
81.0 |
72.1 |
87.5 |
79.0 |
|
Total U.S. Demand |
108.8 |
108.2 |
99.4 |
N/A |
100.7 |
|
N/A = Not Available |
|||||
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
|
Apr-Sep |
96 |
95 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
|
Jan-Jul |
99 |
98 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
|
Oct-Sep |
102 |
102 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|||||
|
Week ended Apr 10 |
Week ended Apr 3 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
|
|
Wind |
16 |
18 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
|
Solar |
9 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Other |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Natural Gas |
35 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
|
Coal |
12 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
|
Nuclear |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> |
2.78 |
2.78 |
3.41 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
|
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> |
1.93 |
2.26 |
2.81 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
|
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> |
1.30 |
1.30 |
2.63 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
|
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> |
1.98 |
2.08 |
2.69 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
|
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> |
2.38 |
2.38 |
3.03 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
|
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> |
2.24 |
2.62 |
3.15 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
|
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> |
2.15 |
2.13 |
2.94 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
|
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> |
-4.06 |
-4.58 |
1.38 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
|
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> |
0.93 |
0.99 |
1.60 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|||||
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
|
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX> |
45.98 |
44.56 |
42.26 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
|
PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX> |
47.01 |
47.01 |
50.50 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
|
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) <W-MIDCP-IDX> |
18.00 |
13.73 |
26.45 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
|
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX> |
10.03 |
17.06 |
25.26 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
|
South Path-15 (SP-15) <W-SP15-IDX> |
6.29 |
9.35 |
9.76 |
28.44 |
53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Rod Nickel)
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