HomeNewsU.S. natgas futures edge up on record LNG export flows, colder forecasts

U.S. natgas futures edge up on record LNG export flows, colder forecasts

1/12/2026
  • Speculators increase short bets amid 27% futures drop
  • LSEG reports slight decrease in U.S. gas output
  • S. LNG export plants see record gas flows in January

U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.1 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.200 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 17.

A 27% drop in gas futures over the past couple of weeks prompted speculators to boost their short bets in futures and options on the NYMEX to their highest since November 2024, according to the latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 Bft3d so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 Bft3d in December.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through January 27.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 135.9 Bft3d this week to 149.7 Bft3d next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.7 Bft3d so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 Bft3d in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a record 19.4 Bft3d on Monday, up from 19.0 Bft3d on Sunday and a daily record high of 19.3 Bft3d on December 4.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $10 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. [NG/EU]

 

Week ended Jan 9 Forecast

Week ended Jan 2 Actual

Year ago Jan 9

Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9

  

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-90

-119

-227

-146

  

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,166

3,256

3,152

3,079

  

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+2.8%

+1.0%

      
           
           

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub <NGc1>

3.27

3.17

3.72

3.62

3.79

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>

10.22

9.69

14.67

11.94

18.51

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>

9.57

9.56

14.16

12.24

18.12
           
           

LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days

          

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)

461

413

538

440

461

U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)

3

4

0

3

3

U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)

464

417

538

443

464
           

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

          
 

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

          

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

109.3

109.6

109.7

103.5

98.6

U.S. Imports from Canada

10.3

9.5

9.8

N/A

9.6

U.S. LNG Imports

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

119.6

119.1

119.4

N/A

108.3
           

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

          

U.S. Exports to Canada

4.0

4.1

4.1

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.8

5.8

5.7

N/A

5.8

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

18.6

19.1

18.5

15.1

12.8

U.S. Commercial

15.0

15.9

19.8

19.1

17.3

U.S. Residential

24.4

26.5

33.4

34.9

29.9

U.S. Power Plant

31.4

30.8

32.8

37.7

32.5

U.S. Industrial

24.9

25.4

26.7

26.3

26.0

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.8

4.4

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

104.0

107.0

121.4

126.3

115.5

Total U.S. Demand

132.3

135.9

149.7

N/A

137.0
           

N/A = Not Available

          
           

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

99

99

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

100

101

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

103

104

80

77

76
           

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

          
 

Week ended Jan 16

Week ended Jan 9

2025

2024

2023

Wind

12

14

11

11

10

Solar

4

5

6

5

4

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

1

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

36

35

40

42

41

Coal

18

15

18

16

17

Nuclear

21

22

18

19

19
           

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>

2.87

2.92

4.13

3.52

3.72

Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>

2.61

2.26

8.77

3.53

3.56

PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>

2.31

2.52

3.87

3.42

5.47

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>

2.37

2.20

3.74

2.79

2.96

Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>

2.63

2.60

3.93

3.23

3.60

Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>

7.55

4.53

15.67

6.08

5.04

SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>

3.03

3.32

4.49

3.60

5.71

Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>

2.13

-0.43

3.27

1.15

2.88

AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>

1.46

1.66

1.22

1.13

2.13
           

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX>

93.00

65.86

147.88

77.61

61.79

PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX>

42.60

30.73

75.11

60.23

54.47

Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX>

17.04

20.08

52.79

44.81

68.96

Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX>

25.29

21.25

44.47

34.82

59.94

SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX>

26.18

21.90

39.98

28.44

53.02

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

 

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