HomeNewsU.S. natural gas prices surge 4% to 35-month high in cold snap

U.S. natural gas prices surge 4% to 35-month high in cold snap

12/5/2025
  • Extreme cold boosts cash prices to highest since last winter
  • Gas flows to LNG export plants near record high
  • Gas prices rise despite forecasts for milder weather
  • Record gas output allows for increased storage levels
  • Global gas prices fall amid hopes for Ukraine peace talks

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a fresh 35-month high as homes and businesses continued to crank up their heaters to escape a week of extreme cold, while flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained near record highs.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20.1 cents, or 4.0%, to $5.263 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since December 27, 2022, for a third day in a row.

Prices increased on Friday despite forecasts for less cold weather and lower demand next week than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage - and a collapse in gas prices in Europe and Asia.

For the week, the front month was up about 9%, keeping it on track to climb for a seventh week in a row for the first time since 2013. During those seven weeks, the contract has soared about 75%.

In the cash market, extreme cold so far this week caused next-day gas prices to soar to their highest since February 2023 in New England, their highest since January 2025 in California, and their highest since February 2025 at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana and in Pennsylvania, Chicago, New York and Alberta in Canada.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 Bft3d so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 Bft3d in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of gas in storage about 5% above normal for this time of year.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain colder than normal through December 8 before turning mostly near normal from December 9–20.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.4 Bft3d this week to 141.4 Bft3d next week before rising to 143.4 Bft3d in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large LNG export plants operating in the U.S. eased to 18.1 Bft3d so far this month, down from a monthly record high of 18.2 Bft3d in November.

Around the world, gas prices fell to a 23-month low near $9 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe, mostly on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more gas in the future.

Elsewhere, prices at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia slid to an 18-month low of around $11 per MMBtu.

 

Week ended Dec 5 Forecast

Week ended Nov 28 Actual

Year ago Dec 5

Five-year average Dec 5

  

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-112

-12

-167

-89

  

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,811

3,923

3,774

3,643

  

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+4.6%

+5.1%

      
           
           

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub <NGc1>

5.10

5.06

3.41

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>

9.30

9.36

13.83

10.95

15.47

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>

10.90

10.99

14.34

11.89

15.23
           
           

LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days

          

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)

423

429

397

360

408

U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)

6

5

3

6

4

U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)

429

434

400

366

412
           

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

          
 

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

          

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

110.5

110.3

109.3

103.7

99.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.8

9.9

9.2

N/A

8.9

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

119.2

120.2

118.5

N/A

108.3
           

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

          

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.2

3.0

3.0

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.1

6.1

6.0

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

18.6

18.8

19.1

14.2

12.8

U.S. Commercial

12.1

17.4

17.0

17.5

14.9

U.S. Residential

18.9

29.4

28.2

29.3

24.2

U.S. Power Plant

31.4

35.0

33.7

36.3

33.6

U.S. Industrial

24.3

26.1

25.8

26.2

25.2

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.7

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.5

3.1

3.0

2.5

4.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

94.8

116.5

113.3

117.4

108.0

Total U.S. Demand

122.8

144.4

141.4

N/A

129.5
           

N/A = Not Available

          
           

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

96

90

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

94

88

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

95

89

80

77

76
           

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

          
 

Week ended Dec 5

Week ended Nov 28

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

11

11

10

11

Solar

4

5

5

4

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

40

39

42

41

38

Coal

19

8

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

21

19

19

19
           

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>

4.89

4.86

3.02

2.19

3.49

Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>

6.49

5.85

3.31

1.98

3.29

PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>

4.62

4.70

3.42

3.04

5.47

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>

4.34

4.39

2.70

1.68

2.77

Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>

4.49

4.80

2.82

2.00

3.41

Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>

20.75

25.00

8.16

2.88

4.27

SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>

4.79

4.90

3.54

2.47

5.92

Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>

1.25

1.80

2.28

0.77

2.91

AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>

2.23

2.31

1.26

0.96

2.28
           

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX>

198.32

189.27

85.01

47.35

48.44

PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX>

92.31

75.32

43.03

41.98

45.33

Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX>

30.55

42.69

42.33

63.89

61.73

Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX>

33.25

40.83

32.02

39.50

62.42

SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX>

38.52

46.52

39.19

31.30

58.87

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

View Less

 

Related News

Comments

{{ error }}
{{ comment.comment.Name }} • {{ comment.timeAgo }}
{{ comment.comment.Text }}