U.S. natgas prices climb 3% on small storage build, higher LNG export flows

8/22/2025

Smaller-than-usual storage build due to increased cooling demand
LNG export flows rise, boosting demand and prices

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, recent declines in daily output and an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 13 Bft³ of gas into storage during the week ended August 15. That was smaller than the 22-Bft³build analysts forecast in a poll and compares with an increase of 29 Bft³during the same week last year and an average build of 35 Bft³ over the 2020–2024 period.

Analysts said the build was smaller-than-usual due to increased cooling demand during hot weather last week.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.4 Bft³d so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 Bft³d in July.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 3.6 Bft³d to a preliminary six-week low of 106.4 Bft³d on Thursday since hitting a daily record high of 109.8 Bft³d on July 28.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through September 5, which is about the same as previously expected.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 110.8 Bft³d this week to 106.8 Bft³d next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 Bft³d so far in August, up from 15.5 Bft³d in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 Bft³d in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to 15.5 Bft³d on Thursday, up from an average of 14.2 Bft³d over the prior three days due to reductions at several plants, including Venture Global LNG's 1.6-Bft³d Calcasieu in Louisiana, Cameron LNG's 2-Bft³d plant in Louisiana, and Freeport LNG’s 2.1-Bft³d plant in Texas.

In the Atlantic basin, meanwhile, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Hurricane Erin, currently located in the ocean between North Carolina and Bermuda, would move northeast off the east coasts of the U.S. and Canada for the next several days.

Erin was expected to cause some tropical storm force winds and rough seas off eastern North Carolina and Virginia over the next 24 hours.

	Week ended Aug 15 Actual	Week ended Aug 8 Actual	Year ago Aug 15	Five-year average Aug 15
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+13	+56	+29	+35
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,199	3,186	3,294	3,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.8%	+6.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub <NGc1>	2.79	2.75	2.09	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>	11.13	10.85	12.40	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>	11.11	11.92	13.31	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	8	8	5	6	9
U.S. GFS CDDs	171	176	207	185	166
U.S. GFS TDDs	179	184	212	191	175

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	108.2	108.2	101.7	97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.7	7.5	7.6	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	115.9	115.7	115.8	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.4	2.4	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.5	7.4	7.3	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.8	15.0	15.6	13.1	10.2
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.6
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	48.1	48.1	43.3	43.5	44.4
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.3	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.2	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	86.0	86.1	81.4	81.1	82.8
Total U.S. Demand	111.6	110.8	106.8	N/A	95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 22	Week ended Aug 15	2024	2023	2022
Wind	6	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	45	42	41	38
Coal	19	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	17	16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>	2.80	2.87
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>	2.03	2.17
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>	3.41	3.16
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>	1.94	2.17
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>	2.56	2.63
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>	2.22	2.38
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>	3.84	3.63
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>	1.11	1.05
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>	0.62	0.60

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX>	41.22	44.46
PJM West <E-PJWHDAP-IDX>	39.59	44.78
Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX>	66.46	50.21
Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX>	70.04	58.56
SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX>	56.83	44.01

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Joe Bavier and Diane Craft)

U.S. natgas prices climb 3% on small storage build, higher LNG export flows

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